Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.290720 2.661773 3.072428 3.560447 4.124481 4.755810 5.516076
2026-02-01 1.568976 2.026334 2.586430 3.322132 4.262637 5.424461 6.968958
2026-02-08 1.172773 1.651919 2.289423 3.198207 4.459411 6.147224 8.578020
2026-02-15 0.940009 1.424590 2.115932 3.171621 4.741059 6.986620 10.444077
2026-02-22 0.811642 1.310552 2.066614 3.291757 5.224318 8.152956 12.928098
2026-03-01 0.682635 1.166806 1.941323 3.264896 5.466243 8.977519 15.002365
2026-03-08 0.577072 1.039012 1.815341 3.207846 5.638055 9.698805 16.996322
2026-03-15 0.502691 0.949523 1.735359 3.209109 5.897308 10.584583 19.372332
2026-03-22 0.477424 0.942298 1.794581 3.459398 6.621151 12.352408 23.519914
2026-03-29 0.431660 0.888477 1.759874 3.529397 7.021528 13.589526 26.864626
2026-04-05 0.391026 0.837553 1.721979 3.585257 7.398467 14.824773 30.362590
2026-04-12 0.349987 0.778858 1.659500 3.581330 7.653409 15.852320 33.581907
2026-04-19 0.309942 0.717604 1.586522 3.553110 7.872228 16.872273 37.007133
2026-04-26 0.260290 0.627144 1.438960 3.344762 7.683694 17.041268 38.700257
2026-05-03 0.225206 0.563842 1.340748 3.229871 7.681968 17.605367 41.334751
2026-05-10 0.201285 0.522811 1.286353 3.206412 7.883008 18.639403 45.171260
2026-05-17 0.189225 0.508885 1.293178 3.329056 8.444435 20.563742 51.344273
2026-05-24 0.170150 0.473615 1.242588 3.302312 8.638931 21.656912 55.685802
2026-05-31 0.151907 0.437300 1.183615 3.244759 8.747170 22.556314 59.678393
2026-06-07 0.138574 0.412063 1.149267 3.246086 9.006952 23.864447 64.892376
2026-06-14 0.137115 0.420197 1.205051 3.499226 9.972497 27.094269 75.565143
2026-06-21 0.128313 0.405364 1.195612 3.570024 10.451765 29.122042 83.313903
2026-06-28 0.119781 0.389847 1.181866 3.626518 10.899863 31.127601 91.288352